Fumbling Towards Authoritarianism vs The Long Arc...

I can't say I was ever possessed what could pass for an optimistic outlook on the world. This would probably surprise precisely nobody who knew me before the age of 25 or so. But the old Cold Warrior in me at least believed in something resembling MLKs "the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." Maybe not justice exactly, but something at least better. The Soviet Union imploded and the Soviet Bloc states emerged from their prisons; former colonies have gained their independence, royal families have been neutered, etc, etc.

There was a belief kicking around starting in the early 90s and lasting for at least the decade that held to the notion that if we just coaxed China into the global world marketplace it would liberalize. It was almost an axiomatic belief. I could say that I didn't believe it - which is true - but in all honesty it wasn't for any particularly far-seeing reason. Instead it was because I simply am intensely skeptical of such grand ideas. At any rate, China did not really liberalize but certainly took advantage of the venality and lack of patriotism endemic to the capital class vis a vis labor. But I'm starting to wander from where I want to go...

Which is that there have been examples of countries like East Germany, Hungary, etc. that emerged from authoritarian systems after decades because information couldn't really be controlled completely and there simply weren't enough hours in the day to surveil every possible enemy of the state. The dreams of something better were still possible. But now? I'm not so sure.

Think about the personal privacy nightmare that is ChatGPT and the various other AI language assistants. They can clearly understand your speech input, i.e. your phone conversations. Which means you don't need a Stasi agent listening to all your calls, reading all your texts, steaming open your mail... (ok maybe someone still needs to do that last one.) A LLM can process ALL of that data and flag anything suspicious. How about free movement? Luigi Mangione was tracked through NYC courtesy of CC TVs and London is now a virtual panopticon. Hell, most of us have contributed ourselves through Ring doorbells. It's not a big stretch to consider the use of facial recognition to start tracking people. You definitely can't drive a car without your plate being tracked easily. But here's the thing: most people still frame these things through the US legal system of warrants, due process, trial by peers and the standard of beyond reasonable doubt. And that is the WRONG way to think about it.

Intelligence analysts think in percentage likelihood - not a US court standard of guilt. That AI facial recognition says it's 83% likely that you were at protest A & B, observed at location C and meeting with person D and yoink! you're detained.

My point is this: the technology is now nearly here that once authoritarianism finds its way in, it will be almost impossible to eject. Authorities will have too much ability to control information (see Great Firewall of China) and too much ability to surveil without the need for a massive human powered surveillance state (a la the Stasi). The next decade will be harrowing. I hope we make it through.