College Football Transformation Part 2

Nick Saban has been getting dragged lately. I'm somewhat agnostic as to his place in the college football firmament, by which I mean there are people involved who are genuinely rotten like Greg Schiano but I have never seen Saban in that way. For the most part, he has seemed to play within the rules and excel within those bounds. Generally, he has advocated for players to get a larger share of the CFB money-pie but he has never been an activist or even the loudest voice. Could he have done more for the players from his unassailable position as one of the best in CFB history? Absolutely. But neither did he fight against players getting paid like some others. Rather, he wanted to give it shape and structure instead of allowing a whirlwind of payment schemes that might ultimately shred the sport. And in that respect, isn't he like most of us that do best in a world with some order.

So let's be honest: the man saw the landscape of the game had changed around him, maybe even passed him by. Not necessarily the game as defined by what happens on the field but the recruiting and retention of players aspect. And the recruiting and retention hat that college football coaches have worn has arguably been their most important. We've seen time and again where successful college coaches have gone on to the pros and been exposed whether due to poor player management, being outschemed, or some combination. Saban himself went to the NFL and the best that can be said is that he was mediocre. The truth is that a lot of successful CFB programs in the pre-money era have created their own gravity and attracted better players to their program as a result of recent success, leading to a virtuous cycle. Saban and Alabama have been the king of this but it can be seen in Ohio State, Florida in the Urban Meyer era, Osborne at Nebraska, etc. It doesn't last forever (what does!?) but in college, the players recruited and placed on the field can make up for all kinds of schematic deficiencies. A talented O-line averaging 320 lbs of muscle is generally going to overwhelm an opposition line of players only 85% as large no matter how well that smaller team can scheme over their size gap.

But now? They are asking coaches to recruit HS players but ALSO re-recruit their own players who - rightfully and understandably - are trying to maximize their compensation through money and playing time to boost their draft stock. Because the money is being distributed in a haphazard and completely uncontrolled fashion, the coaches can't really promise a player X$ because he has no control of that pot of dollars in the first place. He *might* be able to give them an idea of playing time but then again, the transfer portal is so chaotic, who knows what could happen in that regard?

Ultimately, I think Saban - to his credit - realized he wasn't sure how to be the best in the new CFB landscape and decided that he had the luxury of exiting the stage gracefully. We should all be so fortunate to have that level of objectivity regarding ourselves and the ability to comfortably walk off when our time is up.

But Saban's exit is a symptom that CFB as we have largely known it since the BCS era is over and dead. What now exists is a free-for-all transition to... what? No matter how farcical and poorly-enforced the amateurism rules were, they were at least acknowledged. The current era has effectively dropped the mask and ceased any oversight at all - except that athletic departments can't pay players directly. Or at least, they can't call it a salary. What comes next? Fully professionalized? What does that look like? Let's break it down...

Obviously this most impacts the teams themselves as they are "spun off" from their associated educational institutions. Welcome to the world Ann Arbor Wolverines! Say hello to the Tallahassee Seminoles! These new organizations suddenly have gained full control over the revenues they generate.

REVENUE:

• TV

• Ticket sales

• Business sponsorships of the *football* team (official plumber of the Aggies!)

• Some merchandise like football jerseys

I'm sure I'm missing a few streams but they are likely small. (Except one - hold that thought.) BUT, in return for this sudden river of cash they have to pay for everything a professional franchise does.

EXPENSES:

• Salaries/benefits to players, assistants, trainers, coaches, directors, managers, etc.

• Travel

• Stadiums: In all likelihood they will have to lease their stadium from the educational institution that actually owns it.

• A licensing agreement with the university that holds the trademark for their team's colors and mascot.

The astute reader/observer of CFB will realize something very signficant is left out of the discussion above - alumni donations & athletics endowments. The BIGGEST question in this model relates to the tax structure these teams take? Would the tax code still allow these teams to be non-profits? (Unlikely!) And how does this impact alumni donations? Currently, they are an immense source of money for the largest programs and usually tax-deductible (except for things like ticket priority). Is there a world in which the teams attempt to convert alumni donations to a PSL kind of deal? For some teams and institutions, there is likely an endowment type of fund. How much of this goes to football in a spin-off? And that leads into the next impacted entity - the universities themselves.

The universities are also impacted both directly and through secondary effects. They lose likely the largest revenue generator within their athletics departments. Which is not to say the football teams are necessarily profitable within those departments - that's very, very hard to know. But in many cases - particulary in that top tier of power 5 - the football team is likely a financial support for non-revenue sports like soccer, track, etc. Will the universities be willing to potentially (and somewhat paradoxically) contribute *more* money to the suddenly slimmed down athletics department? If not, then with 85 mens scholarships suddenly off the roles and the implications that has for Title IX, what gets cut?

And the discussion of scholarship elimination gets to the players themselves. In this new world, what are they gaining and what do they lose?

Gains:

• Salary & benefits ideally negotiated via a players union or by a player's agent.

• Full control over NIL endorsement contracts outside their playing contract just like an NFLer would have.

Lost:

• Admission to the university: sorry, they can apply through normal academic channels just like everyone else

• Room & board: university won't be providing that anymore either

New reality:

• Players will need to either employ agents (unless a union exists with a generic player contract), or negotiate agreements themselves though possibly both could be true. And an agent would almost certainly be needed for endorsement deals.

• Players have to file taxes on income.

So then: which teams can compete in this newly professionalized landscape? I would argue that in the end, only the large traditional powerhouses of CFB can actually make a go of full professionalization. Teams like Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame (though not any good has an undeniable brand) and their ilk. Basically, the top tier of the Big "10" and the Southern Ex-Confedera...err, Conference. Even then, what the teams end up looking like and how much players can expect to be paid in this new world seems like it hinges in no small part on what happens to those endowments and alumni donations. Bid adieu Northwestern and Vanderbilt - no way you can cut it. Bye bye Indiana. So long Rutgers. You guys just don't have the juice. 

https://twitter.com/jjfuller72/status/1694193242756018553

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Or maybe this is all just overthinking it? Let the football team eat what it kills. Hire the players for 3 year contracts. No admission to the university. Players can negotiate personal endorsement deals and pay taxes. Voila.