Modern War (revisited: Putin's Russia vs. Imperial Rome)

 

Many months ago, I made a post musing that there isn't a nation that is willing to prosecute war with the utter disregard for the generally accepted rules of war that the West has adopted via the Geneva Conventions. And that this in the modern world has meant that truly "winning" a war has become very difficult if not impossible.

However, I had overlooked Putin. Because of reporting on it being relatively minimal except in the indirect effects of the refugee crisis, I forgot about Syria. And Putin's Russia has clearly shown few reservations for deliberately targeting hospitals, apartment blocks, residential areas, etc. That said, it's hard to say anyone has "won" in Syria though a case could be made for 1) Assad who isn't dead and still nominally in charge and 2) Russia who got to practice blowing stuff up with their armed forces.

After the initial failure of the Russian army combined with the furious resistance of the Ukrainians it seems that Putin has simply decided he will reduce the country to rubble in the same manner of US and Allied bombing strategy in World War 2. This kind of scenario is just not something that the West has been able to contemplate with its smart bombs, cruise missiles and well-produced Iraq War 1. It seems inevitable that Russia will win, and with that what comes next?

- Right now the West should advertise loudly that any Russians surrendering their arms and vehicles to Ukraine will be given amnesty either in Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe and resettled. If they feel like they have options, perhaps more of the average Russian soldier just decides to up and leave rather than get shot for Putin.

- Is it likely that Russia undertakes a mass repression and cleansing of the scale that Stalin undertook combined with encouragement of mass settlement by Russians?

- The West needs to accept that possibility that Russia "wins" in the near/medium term (6 months - 1 year) but that Russia buckles under sanctions in the 5 year term. I believe that the West needs to enforce a policy of a restoration of property in the same vein as restoration of art and property that were stolen from Jews by the Nazis. Let the average Russian person who might grab property in Ukraine know that it will be repossessed and returned to its rightful Ukrainian owner.

- Russia should be made a pariah state in the same way as the USSR was. I remember reading about just how far behind their semiconductor and chip technology was in the 80s because they just didn't have the capability due to old rules about technology exports. It was astonishing. In short, no lifting of sanctions.

- Worst case scenario: Putin decides to create a larger "nuclear exclusion zone" by using a small nuclear weapon or dirty bomb south of Chernobyl and effectively cuts the country in half but allowing for the southern band running from Russia to Odessa allowing for land access to Crimea. This would bring a truly insane "buffer" area that he has been demanding of the West. Whether or not he would survive that kind of attack is hard to say.

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