OOC Games and some SEC vs. Big 10

 An old post of mine from the SB Nation blog called "BCS Evolution" that I stumbled across when sifting through some archives - enjoy!

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One of the reasons that the BCS system is so screwy and unsatisfying to so many people is the lack of interconference play. Typically, during the regular season an average FBS team will play 8 conference games, 1 game against an FCS opponent and 3 more out-of-conference (OOC) games in the regular season. Of these 3 games, maybe 1 will be against a team from an auto-qualifier (AQ) conference and 2 more against nAQs. PAC10 teams play an extra conference game (though that will change with the additions of Utah and Colorado edit: incorrect per comments!) and the Big East only plays 7 vs conference opponents. Plus or minus a game here and there, the 8x Conf./1x FCS/2x nAQ-OOC/1x AQ-OOC will hold for an AQ program. Auburn is a perfect example of this playing 8 conference games, one FCS team, two games vs. Sun Belt teams and one game against an ACC opponent.

Considering that there are 66 AQ teams (conferences + Notre Dame) of the total120 FBS programs, there are a scarce few games to actually compare the conferences with. That being said, it's still very interesting to actually dive into the numbers anyway to see what they tell us. For the following metrics, I left off FCS games because unless you're Va.Tech, no decent FBS team ever actually loses to them.

Best Conference W/L% vs. OOC (AQ+nAQ):
SEC takes the prize here with a 0.766 W/L%. That shouldn't really come as too big of a surprise considering the SEC has won the last 5 BCS championship games and their partisans are the loudest in the game and some of the most persistently annoying on college football discussion boards. (Save for perhaps Ohio State fans.)

1	SEC	0.766
2	Big12	0.750
3	Big10	0.690
4	Indep.	0.613
5	MWC	0.571
5	PAC10	0.571
7	Big East	0.514
8	ACC	0.500
9	WAC	0.391
10	CUSA	0.333
11	MAC	0.196
12	Sun Belt	0.108

Best Conference W/L% vs. OOC (AQ+Indep.):
The PAC-10 surprisingly takes this category with a 0.632 in 17 games. PAC-10 backers often bemoan their extra conference game as causing something you might call "ranking attrition" in their upper echelon of teams and to some degree their performance vs. other AQ opponents helps their case.

1	PAC10	0.632
2	SEC	0.600
3	MWC	0.556
4	Big12	0.550
5	Indep.	0.538
6	Big10	0.526
7	ACC	0.379
8	WAC	0.368
9	Big East	0.333
10	CUSA	0.176
11	MAC	0.125
12	Sun Belt	0.000

These metrics are all well and good - particularly if you're an SEC partisan since they put you at #1 and #2 in these two categories - but they are frankly very coarse dissections. The most glaring oversight is the fact that programs in perennial contention for the BCS title have very little incentive to actually schedule the other perennial contenders from outside their own conference. Let's revisit Auburn as an example. Their OOC schedule includes Arkansas St. (Sun Belt), Clemson (ACC), La-Monroe (Sun Belt) and Chattanooga (FCS). This is not to call out Auburn for having a much softer OOC slate than anyone else. Peruse the top ranks of all the AQ conferences, you'll find similar matchups. The games that end up being marquee matchups were often scheduled when one team was mired in mediocrity and others, such as Oregon vs. Tennessee, were scheduled when Tennessee was good and Oregon was a 0.500 team. Bottom line, don't give the schedulers the benefit of the doubt when it comes to intending to have top-tier teams matching up in OOC games. More often than not, it's purely accidental. The exception to these general rules: historic rivalry games like Florida vs. Florida State, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech, when both teams are performing well.

A more interesting way to look at OOC games [including bowl games] is by the Collective W/L% of the OOC opponents for each conference. And for the SEC, it isn't pretty...

1	PAC10	0.621
2	ACC	0.604
3	Sun Belt	0.574
4	WAC	0.551
5	MAC	0.542
6	CUSA	0.535
7	Big10	0.519
8	Indep.	0.518
9	MWC	0.517
10	Big12	0.507
11	Big East	0.506
12	SEC	0.501

Now part of this is because the SEC schedules the Sun Belt for 8 games and CUSA for 9 of their 47 games against FBS teams. The Sun Belt is almost certainly the worst FBS conference and CUSA is only marginally better. That being said, all these wins being racked up against Sun Belt & CUSA teams are counting towards their poll ranks. I was rather surprised at the PAC-10's collective OOC schedule. As it turns out the mark was owed to the fact that two of their teams played in bowl games vs. two opponents with a collective 25-2 record coupled with the reality that they play the fewest number of OOC games due to their conference schedule. However, removing these two opponents still gives their collective opponents a ~0.565 W/L%.

Obviously, SEC partisans are going to scream to the heavens that since their conference schedule is such a murderer's row, that they can't afford to schedule any good teams from outside the conference. While this might be true - and I do tend to believe the SEC is the strongest overall conference - they would do well to hold their collective tongue and let the next table talk... the Collective Conference W/L% vs. OOC Oppoents >0.500.

1	SEC	0.400
2	Big12	0.392
3	PAC10	0.343
4	Big10	0.342
5	Big East	0.333
6	ACC	0.308
7	Indep.	0.273
8	MWC	0.269
9	WAC	0.267
10	MAC	0.182
11	CUSA	0.179
12	Sun Belt	0.083

So basically, while the Big 12 and SEC tend to pad their schedules with the likes of Pigknuckle Arkansas Technical Institue for the Blind and East Jeebus State, when they do play winning teams they perform better than others.

Now let's look at the bowl performances...

The SEC managed to put 10(!) teams into bowls this season. That's everyone except Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and vividly illustrates the reason for scheduling all of those nAQ and FCS teams. Tennessee (6-6/#9 SEC going into the game) lost to a UNC team (7-5/#9 ACC) that had been plagued with season-long investigations and allegations. Georgia (6-6/#8 SEC) lost to UCF (10-3/#1CUSA!) in a fairly ugly, low-scoring affair. Erratic but decent South Carolina (9-4/#5 SEC) lost to an erratic but good Florida State (9-4/#2 ACC) team. Alabama (9-3/#3) then crushed the Big 10 co-champs Michigan State (11-1/#1-ish Big 10) in a game that could charitably be described as a total rout. Florida (7-5/#6) then beat a struggling Penn State team (7-5/#6 Big 10), though not without effort. Mississippi State (8-4/#7) manhandled Michigan (7-5/#7 Big 10)in another Big 10 embarrassment, though Ohio State (11-1/co-#1 Big 10) did recover some of the conference dignity by beating a tough Arkansas team (10-2/#2 SEC). LSU (10-2/#3 SEC) handled Texas A&M (9-3/#4 Big 12) easily enough followed by Kentucky (6-6/#10) losing to a Pittsburgh team (7-5/#2 Big East) going through some major coaching flux. Finally, Auburn beat Oregon in a close and sloppy game. Overall, a 5-5 record.

So what can we say with confidence? I think it's safe to say the top of the SEC is stronger than the top of the Big 10 given that in the only Big 10 victory Ohio State still managed to let Arkansas back into a game that should have been over at halftime. The middle ranks of the SEC though are a mixed bag. Arguably, Kentucky and Tennessee should never have been in bowl games. A lousy Georgia losing to the CUSA conference champ could perhaps be forgiven. (Though maybe not by UGA fans.) South Carolina losing to FSU has to be seen as a disappointment considering they won the SEC East and beat Alabama. Florida didn't look so hot against a Penn State program that had an off year.

The SEC has two, maybe three of the best programs in FBS football in Alabama, LSU, and Florida although it remains to be seen if Florida can recover its recent greatness. In the 2nd tier I would include Arkansas, Auburn (this year with Cam an exception), Mississippi State and South Carolina as they are erratic but seem capable of beating just about anyone with a couple of breaks. Vanderbilt, Mississippi and  Kentucky were a collective 4-20 in SEC play which is pretty much the same as Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota going 5-19 in conference action. These bottom teams serve as more schedule padding for those at the top. Until bowl season, it was pretty tough quantitatively to tell whether the Big 10 or the SEC really was better. Both conferences tend to be echo chambers without decent OOC schedules.